Crisis of Confidence

Did you hear that Bill Belichick went for it on 4^th and 2 against the Colts during Week 10? No, you say? Then you really should call the Guinness Book of World Records; you’re living underneath the world’s largest rock. It doesn’t matter if you’re watching coverage of the Rams-Cardinals game six weeks later, sportscasters will bring it up somehow. It’s the most controversial decision of the year, and unless the Patriots beat the Colts in the playoffs, it could be remembered for long after this season.

The biggest conversation point that has come out of that is about Belichick’s lack of faith in his defense. But as of right now, my faith in the defense is waning as well. They’re ranked 20^th in the NFL. The Saints not only made them look bad, but they made the D look stupid as well, as Drew Brees tricked them into blowing simple coverages. Tully Banta-Cain has been hyped as the main pass-rusher, and let’s be honest here, that’s not good news, because that means TULLY BANTA-CAIN is our main pass-rusher. The Pats are tied for 19^th in the league with 28 sacks. But 10 of those sacks have come against the Buffalo Bills, including 5 of Banta-Cain’s 8.5. Since they're getting practically no pressure, the defense is falling flat.

After Week 13, in which the Patriots lost to the Dolphins and the Giants beat the Cowboys, ESPN had a poll asking whether New England or Dallas was in more trouble to get to the playoffs. Only two states in the nation picked the Patriots as being in deeper trouble than the Cowboys: Massachusetts and Hawaii. And we all remember from grade school that Hawaii doesn’t count for anything. So essentially the entire country believed that the Cowboys were in for it, and the one state that is supposed have faith in the Patriots has suddenly become “glass half-empty” as this season has progressed. Even though we were leading the AFC East when the poll was taken, and have since won the division.

And to be honest, the Patriots defense has done little to give us faith. They haven’t had a “defining play.” They’ve been burned by big play after big play. You can’t help but wonder what effect Richard Seymour’s departure had on this young unit. Thankfully, it is a young unit, and has a lot of chance to grow in the future. The defense could be great again with more experience for Jerod Mayo, Brandon Merriweather, and Vince Wilfork, if he’s re-signed.

There are a handful of spots for this team to have some real confidence. Wes Welker leads the league in receptions. The way he’s played the last couple seasons, that sounds like no surprise to Patriots fans. But don’t forget that he was out injured the first two weeks of the season, so he’s outperformed every receiver in the league that had a two game head start on him. And he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

Sebastian Vollmer ended up being a monster at offensive tackle in his rookie season. He came in for an injured Matt Light and manhandled top defensive ends like Kyle Vanden Bosch and Dwight Freeney. He’s now moved over to right tackle, and our offensive line might be even stronger than it was in the perfect season. It’s something easily overlooked, but an improvement like that could mean more time for Brady to throw in the playoffs.

Randy Moss “bouncing back” was encouraging. He never bounced back in Minnesota. He never bounced in the first place for Oakland. Is it being blown completely out of proportion? Yes, it absolutely is. He had one bad game against Carolina, where the losing team was questioning his effort. In the weeks prior to that, he’d caught a 58 yard touchdown pass against the Dolphins, came down with 5 catches and a score against the red-hot Darelle Revis, and had 179 yards receiving with two trips to the end zone against the Colts. The only time in there he’d really done nothing was against the Saints, but none of the Patriots showed up that day anyways. Perhaps the thing to be happy with isn’t that Randy “bounced back,” but just can still play at the top of his game, and didn’t let Carolina’s head games get to him.

Beyond just issues with confidence from the people surrounding them, this is undoubtedly a team with an identity crisis. At the start of the decade, this was the defense that won championships. In 2007, the Tom Brady led one of the most unbelievable offenses in history. Last season was supposed to be the quirky year with Cassel leading the offense, yet this season has really been one lacking definition. We’re not a premiere defense anymore. The passing offense is good, but not perfect enough to rest the game solely on Brady’s sore shoulders. Every time the rushing game starts to make strides, either someone gets injured, or Maroney fumbles the ball on the goal line. Mostly the latter.

The Patriots are going to the playoffs, and they still have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. There was once a day that meant they were the favorites for it all. But now people are questioning Belichick’s decisions for the first time, and a once-infallible Brady has come down to earth in many people’s eyes. The Patriots can win the Super Bowl. I just can’t tell you exactly how they would do it. And I don’t think they could tell you either.